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The Ukraine War and the Future of International Order (Part 1) Techno-policy

 Dr. Amirhooshang Mirkooshesh

The Ukraine war is likely to reach a new level with the introduction of the Patriot air defense systems, as well as Germany's Leopard tanks and America's Abrams tanks. Russian forces have continued to focus their attacks on eastern Ukraine, but despite the resistance of the Ukrainian army, progress in these areas has been slow. At the start of Russia's military invasion of Ukraine, it seemed that capturing the Donbas region would not be too difficult, given the presence of the self-proclaimed republics of Luhansk and Donetsk and the 14-year-long conflict between Moscow-backed militias and the Ukrainian army.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed confidence in his country's victory in the military invasion of Ukraine, despite the fact that about a year has passed since the invasion began and Russian forces have suffered several major defeats in this war. The initial goals of Russia's invasion were much broader than just the Donbas region; the country aimed to occupy all of Ukraine, overthrow the established government, and install a puppet regime. However, as the war has dragged on and Western aid to Ukraine has been extensive, coupled with the surprising resistance of Ukrainian forces, Putin is now ready to negotiate to retain control over Donbas. Nevertheless, it seems that Ukraine and its supporters are determined to advance until Crimea is liberated. The question arises: Why has the world's second-largest military, bolstered by Russian nationalism, struggled so much in Ukraine and failed to achieve its goals, with no clear prospect of success?

It appears that Putin has gambled on a losing bet for the following reasons:

  1. The West and Europe's need for Russian oil and gas.
  2. The inability to endure a prolonged war in Europe.
  3. America's hesitation to directly enter the conflict.
  4. China's exploitation of the current situation.
  5. Support from the Israeli lobby for Putin.
  6. The severing of Western ties with Iran and the fragmentation of the Middle East.
  7. Miscalculations about the strength and capability of the Russian military.
  8. The practical support of the Russian and Ukrainian people.
  9. And more...

In addition to the reasons mentioned, there is another crucial factor that needs to be addressed, known as "techno-policy." Techno-policy refers to leveraging technological superiority as a game-changer to checkmate and neutralize the opponent. Thomas Friedman, a columnist for The New York Times and a political analyst, describes techno-policy as a 21st-century weapon with destructive power equivalent to that of a nuclear bomb in the economic arena. The targeted actor, caught in a checkmate and trapped in a self-destructive project, faces a nervous breakdown and is at risk of mental and neurological takeover (neuro-parasite) by the hegemonic system, pushing them towards self-destruction and suicide for the benefit of the opponent.

To support this hypothesis, several actions taken by the West against Russia in the Ukraine war are highlighted:

  • The domino effect of sanctions against Russia began with 2,778 sanctions in the first 10 days of the war, quickly increasing to 5,532 sanctions and surpassing 6,000 today. Sanctions targeted vital Russian industries, infrastructure, international communications, access to international institutions and networks, Russian airlines, financial companies like PayPal, Visa, and MasterCard, the suspension of smartphone and chip shipments to Russia, and the banning of energy imports, alongside sanctions from multinational corporations and global brands. For instance, sanctions were imposed on Boeing and Airbus, leasing companies, Cogent (which controls 25% of global internet traffic with Russia), and technology giants like Twitter, Microsoft, Samsung, Apple, Intel, IBM, Cisco, Google Maps, Google Play, YouTube, McDonald's, Shell (which owns 27.5% of Russia's Sakhalin LNG facilities), British Petroleum (the largest foreign investor in Russia, holding 19.75% of Rosneft shares), and other energy companies like Equinor, ExxonMobil, and Total, as well as Japan's export restrictions on laboratory equipment.

It appears that Russia's economy is being sterilized through techno-politics, and the prolonged war in Ukraine could inflict heavy damage on Russia and its economy, leading to eventual defeat. The U.S.'s objectives in the Ukraine war and its efforts to entrap Russia are highly complex, calculated, and based on pre-existing plans aimed at significantly weakening Russia and removing it from global equations. Of course, this is just one of the U.S. and the West's goals, perhaps the most important one, but they have other objectives as well, which will be discussed in the next section. Overall, it seems that the ultimate goal of the U.S. is to determine and establish the future international order and weaken or eliminate its potential rivals.

Editorial Board, Iranian Journal of International Relations

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