Prof. Dr. Andreas Vasilache

Professor of European Studies and German Director of the Centre for German and European Studies (CGES/ZDES), Bielefeld University, Germany

In your opinion what are the goals of the United States in the issue of military withdrawal from Afghanistan and its clear handover to the Taliban?

A: The main reasons of the retreat of the US from Afghanistan are to be found in US domestic politics. War fatigue in the US combined with the improbability of sustainable democratization in Afghanistan can be seen as major reasons for the end of US military engagement in Afghanistan.

 - What will be the effects of the Taliban's re-dominance of Afghanistan on the security of the region, especially Afghanistan's neighbors?

A: This will strongly depend on both the foreign policy approach of the new Taliban government as well as on the economic development. If the push factors for vast parts of the population in Afghanistan remain high, larger migration movements might contribute to regional destabilization. This risk, however, might motivate both the new rulers in Afghanistan as well as the neighboring countries to cooperate in the political and economic stabilization of Afghanistan.

- What impact will the Taliban's dominance of Afghanistan have on China's security, especially the Muslim province of Xinjiang (bordering Afghanistan)?

A: China can be expected to have a wachful eye on how the new government in Afghanistan is positioning itself and expressing itself in terms of foreign and regional policy. While it might be possible that the new Taliban government will try to build positive ties to Beijing, China might still be concerned about other, insurgent actors in Afghanistan that are not under Taliban control, but competing with the Taliban.

Editorial Board of Iranian Journal of International Relations