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Afghanistan's security-political future in the light of US military withdrawal

Arezoo Ravansetan 

With the final results of the US elections in 2021 and the coming to power of Joe Biden, the first signs of the US determination to end the 20-year crisis in Afghanistan, the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan before September 11, 2021, in political parliaments Inside Afghanistan, and among international relations theorists and analysts, the question is, what is the security-political outlook for the country in the light of the withdrawal of US troops?

To answer this question, the author of this work has studied the upstream documents of the Afghan government in two categories of political and security programs of this country.
Thus, by implementing the plans of the "Government of National Unity" and the "Government of National Reconciliation" of Afghanistan, it is argued that the security-political future of the country in the light of internal developments resulting from government negotiations with the Taliban and continued logistical and financial support. In the long run, from a tactical point of view, in pursuit of its grand strategic goals, it has paid special attention to the security-political perspective of this country.

Afghanistan's security-political outlook in the light of US military withdrawal
Afghanistan's "National Reconciliation Government", the result of the 2019 elections, is the second document of the Afghan National Unity Framework for Peace and Development, taking into account the existing realities of the country (including opportunities, capacities and challenges) and stating its strategic goals. From 2021 to 2025, he presented the slogan "We shape our own transformation" and "The path to self-sufficiency begins in Afghanistan and ends in Afghanistan."

Accordingly, special attention has been paid to the security-political situation in the country, especially with regard to the withdrawal of US and NATO troops.
Thus, the goal of the "Government of National Reconciliation" of Afghanistan, in the next five years in the political and security dimension, the continuation of the goals of the "Government of National Unity" based on the realization of decades of Afghans' desire to have a stable and prosperous country Political redefinition of Afghanistan's role in the domestic and foreign arenas and security stability for the development and lasting peace of this country.
Political dimension: A country with a government with political will and determination in practice (purposeful, consequential and based on constitutional principles) is redefined; In a way that plays a more active role in the international system as an independent state with the aim of overcoming isolation.
Therefore, in order to break out of the isolation and redefine the new faces of Afghanistan, which was declared a threat to the region and the international system during the Taliban rule, extensive cooperation with the international community in the fight against terrorism and drugs is on the government's agenda.
To achieve this goal, four systematic policies were defined as Afghanistan's strategic goals in the political dimension, including:
- To be safe for our neighbors and the world,
- Observance of good neighborliness,
- A place for common interests and
- The field of opportunity, not competition, for the international community has been considered by the statesmen in the domestic arena, which shows the interest and will of the Afghan government to use its capacities and resources to play its regional and international role.

Hence, the credibility of Afghanistan's image in the international community through membership in international institutions and organizations,
Attracting global support for peace and security in Afghanistan (through the adoption of Security Council resolutions emphasizing and supporting the country's plans for peace and security);
Consolidation of the country's position as a regional communication highway (redefining Afghanistan as a point of connection, replacing the point of the season with the use of active diplomacy),
Establishing friendly relations with Islamic and non-Islamic countries (by signing more than three hundred international documents) and
Cooperation with the international community in the fight against the threat of terrorism and the global consensus against it is one of the main political programs of the Afghan government in the light of the US military withdrawal from the country.
Security dimension: Ensuring security and stability was one of the most important and fundamental demands of the Afghan people, especially after the weakening of the Taliban by coalition forces.
Now, after the withdrawal of US troops, it requires the government to pay special attention to this public demand. Hence, the preservation and consolidation of geopolitical geography
Defending the territorial integrity of the country (to ensure the survival of the system),
Development and implementation of a four-year security plan (in the two axes of extensive and sustainable reforms at various levels of the security and military forces and capacity building of these forces),
Long-term investment in the security and defense forces (strong support for the military-security forces, strengthening the knowledge and skills of the military-security forces and utilizing the capacity of women),
More effective increase of operations (ensuring the security of highways and in the form of planning and carrying out large and immediate operations and suppressing ISIL),
Reduction of corruption in military institutions (transparency in contracts and handling of corruption cases),
Strengthening the morale of the military-security forces (addressing the situation of the families of the victims of the armed forces) and
Clear definition of the enemy (three groups of terrorists, drug traffickers and mafia and economic crime mafia are defined as the main enemy),
Improving the livelihoods of military-security forces and their families and the fight against narcotics (combating the cultivation and trafficking of narcotics and economic crimes as a source of increased terrorist threats by these groups and the social harm of this issue, the government's position on the serious struggle of the military- Has put its security in cooperation with the international community) on the agenda of the Afghan government in the field of security.
Therefore, the efforts of the Afghan government to establish peace and comprehensive stability in this country and to hold peace talks with the Taliban in order to achieve lasting peace have been unprecedented and continuous so far.
Therefore, in order to achieve peace and stability in order to ensure security, the government will take measures such as:
A. Strengthen the High Peace Council through the development of a national peace strategy (with four objectives: including mapping out national consensus, initiating peace talks among Afghans, implementing the local stability program with the peace agreement, and building capacity for peace); Holding meetings of mothers of peace (with the aim of promoting the role of women in peace); Holding a Peace Advisory Loya Jirga (including a Peace Advisory Meeting with religious scholars, jihadi and ethnic leaders, and the National Consultative Council on Civil Society);

B. Destroying the intellectual and belief bases of the war by cooperating with the ulema in issuing fatwas regarding the indecent and illegitimate reading of the war, which has caused ideological pressure on the armed opposition and confirmed the religious legitimacy of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan;
C. Establish and implement practical mechanisms with the "Peace Roadmap" by the government through national consensus (consultation with various segments of society and parties), regional consensus (in the form of bilateral and multilateral consultations with countries in the region, and Afghanistan and Pakistan action plan for Peace and Solidarity), has put an end to the ceasefire with the Taliban and negotiations for a lasting peace.
Therefore, regarding the security and political future of Afghanistan after the withdrawal of American troops, we can say:
Politically (redefining Afghanistan's role in the region and the world and attracting international support for security and peacekeeping) and military and security military empowerment (including the formation of an independent air force to take responsibility for the country's security against groups Armed Opposition) has had significant domestic successes.
However, one should not ignore the fact that the continued implementation of this seemingly small step requires the conclusion of peace talks and the establishment of a lasting peace with the Taliban joining the government and meeting their demands through legal channels.


*PhD student in International Relations, Islamic Azad University, North Tehran Branch

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